Coinbase Stock Soared with Bitcoin’s Rise. Now Its Earnings Are a Worry.

But now, investors should expect “a more mild second quarter,” wrote Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev in a Tuesday note.

Crypto markets have cooled off recently: The price of Bitcoin fell 11% last month, which may have hurt Coinbase’s revenue and trading volumes. Dolev estimated that second-quarter total trading volumes ranged from $215 billion to $220 billion, compared with $312 billion in the first quarter.

Dolev has had a Sell rating on the stock since late 2022. His current target of $145 for the price implies a decline of 34% from Monday’s close.

He isn’t alone in predicting a weak second quarter. Raymond James analyst Patrick O’Shaughnessy, who rates Coinbase stock at Market Perform, also cut his estimates in a Tuesday note. He now expects second-quarter trading volume of $214.8 billion, down from an earlier estimate of $252.2 billion.

Both analysts see second-quarter revenue of about $1.3 billion, a decline of about 19% decline from the quarter before. Their estimates are below the broader market consensus of $1.409 billion, which has also dropped from $1.414 billion a month ago.

Coinbase didn’t respond to questions from Barron’s.

To be sure, analysts’ estimates still point to better trading volume than a year ago, when the market was reeling from interest-rate increases and the collapse of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange. In the year-ago second quarter, total trading volumes came in at just $145 billion.

Still, an underwhelming earnings report after a strong start to the year could put pressure on the stock. On Tuesday, the stock gained 1.5% after initially declining. Over the past month, it has declined by 8.7%.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at karishma.vanjani@dowjones.com.