Risks in global food markets in six charts

Diversion of food commodities to biofuels. Production of biofuels is expected to increase  considerably in the medium to longer term. For example, the International Energy Agency expects a 30 percent increase in biofuel demand from 2023-28 relative to the previous five years. Emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia are expected to drive over 60 percent of demand growth through supportive policies, rising demand for transport fuel, and the ample availability of feedstock, even though the majority of current production occurs in advanced economies. The share of biodiesel demand in total palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is projected to rise from 19 percent in 2022 to 30 percent by 2028. Additionally, in the United States, eight midwestern states will be permitted to sell gasoline blended with 15 percent ethanol year-round from April 2025. The forecasts assume that this policy-derived support for biofuel demand will continue. However, if these policies do not unfold as planned (or they are intensified), there may be downward (or upward) pressure on prices of key food commodities, including some grains, vegetable oils, and sugar.