Oil to rise to $86 per barrel this quarter on ‘solid summer demand,’ Goldman

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Oil prices are expected to jump this summer on demand for transportation and cooling. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast Brent crude prices to rise to $86 per barrel, almost a 7% increase from current levels.

On Monday, West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was trading just over $76.50 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark price, hovered above $80.50 per barrel.

“We expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the market in a sizable Q3 deficit,” wrote Daan Struyven, managing director and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs.

The analyst and his team expect Brent to rise to $86 per barrel in the third quarter and stuck with their range forecast of $75 to $90 per barrel.

Oil has been on a downward trend since April, exacerbated recently after oil alliance OPEC+ said it would start unwinding some of its voluntary output cuts starting in October.

The production phaseout should keep prices from going too high while buying activity will increase if prices fall too much.

“We still see $75/bbl as a floor under Brent. For one thing, physical demand for oil, including from China and the US SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve], tends to rise when prices fall,” the analysts wrote.

Last week, the Department of Energy announced new solicitations for 3.1 million barrels in addition to the 3 million that were recently secured for the SPR.

Oil rig and pump of H&P Rig 488 in Stanton, Texas, on June 8, 2023. (SUZANNE CORDEIRO/AFP via Getty Images) (SUZANNE CORDEIRO via Getty Images)

Last week, JPMorgan analysts said the recent pullback in oil was likely temporary.

“Summer inventory draws should be enough to get Brent back into the high $80s-$90 range by September,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, wrote in a note on Thursday.

Wall Street widely predicts slowing demand amid greater supply will send prices lower next year, with JPMorgan analysts predicting Brent to average $75 in 2025, sharply down from $83 in 2024.

Goldman Sachs has kept its target for next year unchanged at an average of $82 per barrel.

Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

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