Lagarde Q&A: Question of what we do in September is wide open, will be data

Lagarde

There is no pre-determined path for SeptemberSept projections plus other data will be taken into accountDecision today was unanimousSurveys indicate wage growth will decline in 2025 and 2026Various wage measures point in the direction of rather elevated levelsWe’re data dependent, not data-point dependentWe will stay in restrictive territory as long as is necessaryWe must look at all components of data in the next weeks and months, this is going to be a processIt’s clear between now and Sept, we will be receiving a lot of informationThe inflation target won’t be debated on my watch

The euro is edging down, though rate cut probabilities haven’t moved. The euro is sagging during the press conference but she hasn’t exactly been dovish.

Some are pointing to the comment about the growth outlook being tilted to the downside as a reason for euro softness. The main line of thinking is that they will cut in September so long as inflation doesn’t surprise higher.