EIA: U.S. Crude Stocks Rise as Imports Surge, Refinery Activity Slows

Crude Oil Imports Surge While Product Imports Remain Mixed

Crude oil imports surged by 1.2 million bpd to 7.7 million bpd, significantly above the four-week average of 6.6 million bpd. This represents a 2.7% increase compared to the same four-week period last year. In contrast, motor gasoline imports remained relatively low at 374,000 bpd, while distillate fuel imports averaged 123,000 bpd.

Product Inventories Show Mixed Trends

Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels but remained 4% below the five-year average. Both finished gasoline and blending components saw gains, suggesting a rebound in gasoline supply. Distillate fuel inventories edged down by 0.1 million barrels and also stood 4% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, propane/propylene inventories dropped by 0.7 million barrels but stayed 10% above their five-year average, signaling robust supply in this category.

Demand Trends Provide Limited Support

Total products supplied averaged 20.7 million bpd over the past four weeks, a modest 1.2% increase year-over-year. Motor gasoline demand rose slightly, averaging 8.9 million bpd, up 0.5% from the same period last year. However, distillate fuel demand contracted sharply, falling 6.4% year-over-year, while jet fuel demand dipped 1.3%, indicating softer conditions in middle distillate markets.

Market Forecast: Bearish Outlook for Crude Prices

The combination of rising crude imports, higher inventories, and softer demand for distillates and jet fuel suggests limited upside for crude oil prices in the near term. While refiners may increase runs in the coming weeks, the current supply-demand balance points to a bearish outlook for crude oil, particularly if demand fails to rebound significantly in key product categories.