COP28: a metals and mining stocktake

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In 2015, few major diversified miners had definitive plans to decarbonise, and almost no visibility on the technologies that would be used to achieve it.

Fast forward to today and almost all diversified miners have committed to net-zero operational emissions by 2050, some leading with very aggressive timelines (e.g. Fortescue by 2030).

Policies are expanding to bolster the development of domestic supply chains, partly aiming to decrease reliance on China.

Notably, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Europe’s REPowerEU have introduced direct incentives and specific policies to encourage the adoption of new technologies. Japan, South Korea, China, Canada, and India are aligning with this trend through strategic initiatives. Their policy shifts and critical mineral acts indicate a heightened awareness among decision-makers regarding metals’ pivotal role in the energy transition.

It is clear there has been significant progress, but has it been fast enough?

What else is needed to deliver Paris agreement goals?

Despite the evident progress, we anticipate that the upcoming COP28 global stocktake (GST) will underscore the need for greater efforts. We hope that participants acknowledge the vital role of metals in achieving climate targets and resolve to aggressively facilitate metals supply. The task has hardened amid a less favourable geopolitical landscape and a weak pricing environment that could shift miners’ focus away from growth.

Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition team has identified four of the biggest changes needed to deliver on Paris Agreement goals, across the commodities spectrum: Investment into clean energy infrastructure, new financing mechanisms, oil and gas company contributions, and global cooperation. We have reviewed what this could mean for metals and mining specifically and have added a fifth measure – the development of the circular economy and recycling, full details on these five challenges are available in the full report.

Fill in the form at the top of the page download the full report.

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