China PMIs Diverge as Services Expand and Tariffs Hit Manufacturing; AUD/USD

Notably, the manufacturing sector continued to contract, primarily due to the impact of US tariffs.

Manufacturing Sector Demand and Industry Trends

CN Wire revealed key trends in June’s PMI survey:

Manufacturing production rose 0.3 percentage points (pps) to 51.0% as demand improved.
The New Orders Index increased 0.4 pps to 50.2, crucially above the 50 neutral level.
External demand contracted at a slower pace as the New Export Order Index advanced 0.8 pps to 48.3%.
New export orders contracted for the 14th consecutive month, largely due to US tariffs.
June’s data showed small businesses bearing the brunt of US tariffs. The Large Enterprise PMI rose 0.5 pps to 51.2%, with the Medium-Sized Enterprise PMI up 1.1 pps to 48.6%. However, small business activity lagged at 47.3%.

China’s Economic Outlook and a US-China Trade Deal

The June figures aligned with improving sentiment toward China’s economic outlook. Last week, Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast from 4.7% to 5%, mirroring Beijing’s growth target. Today’s data and Citi’s upgrade coincided with the US and China reaching a crucial agreements on trade.

US President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly stated the US and China signed a trade agreement on June 25. Following an initial lack of confirmation, news from Beijing suggested progress on a deal. China’s Ministry of Commerce reportedly stated:

“China will, in accordance with the law, approve export applications for controlled items that meet relevant requirements. The US side will accordingly lift a series of restrictive measures on China.”

Despite the agreements, key tariffs remain, suggesting the deal may only partially address trade barriers. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent poured cold water on hopes of an end to tariffs, reportedly stating: