BRICS, Tariffs, and Geopolitics: The US Presidential Race and US-China Relations

Tax Foundation calculations based on US Customs and Border Protection – Trade Statistics

The statistics highlight the Biden administration’s policy to retain the Trump administration’s tariffs while adding more tariffs on selected goods.

Tariffs don’t just affect China but also the US economy. The Tax Foundation estimates the US GDP to fall by at least 0.8 percent. The Foundation also projects an employment decline of 684,000 full-time equivalent jobs if Trump wins and imposes pledged tariffs. The economic toll of ongoing trade tensions remains a pressing concern.

US Presidential Election and Outside Interference

As Election Day approaches, fears of possible interference with the US election have intensified. US intelligence has warned of China, Iran, and Russian efforts to influence the election result.

Countries, including China, have a vested interest in the outcome of the Presidential Election.

In October, the Washington Post reported that leaders in China, Iran, and Russia denied interfering with the election. However, the Washington Post also reported,

“A recently declassified assessment from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) states that Russia and China are most likely to consider tactics that could foment or contribute to violence, and may threaten, or may amplify threats of physical violence in the post-Election Day time frame.”

The council concluded,

“Those countries would likely refrain from attempts to alter the vote count because they would probably be detected and would almost certainly result in retaliation.”

Who Could China Prefer?

In Summary, a Trump administration would raise the threat of 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods and deteriorating US-China relations. The prospect of punitive tariffs could impact China’s economy and US consumers.

With so much at stake, post-election interference could fuel geopolitical tensions. A Harris administration would support improving US-China relations. Nevertheless, her administration could still impact the US economy, with existing tariffs likely to remain.